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National Retail Report - Fall 2018

Fall 2018 Key Highlights

Based on data to September 2018, we forecasted full-year retail sales in Canada would increase by 3.44% over 2017, fueled by Ontario (4.23%) and Quebec (4.17%). 

Our model predicts that when all the sales are tallied, Ontario (7.18%) and Alberta (6.03%) will see the strongest holiday season growth, and the country as a whole (5.70%) will be inclined to open their wallets this December.

Our outlook for retail sales at the national level is clouded by political and economic uncertainty in the US, low energy and commodity prices, and a growing acceptance of online shopping as a convenient (if not always the cheapest) retail portal. With population growth and inflation responsible for the lion’s share of retail sales growth, we expect 2019’s total sales of $620 billion to be only a 2.2% increase over 2018.