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Federal Politics Meets CRE

Federal Politics Meets CRE Hero
Once again, it’s late summer so indulge me on a topic outside our usual research discussions. It’s everyone’s (least?) favorite topic: Canadian politics! Amazingly, we’re coming up on year 9 of Justin Trudeau as prime minister. And in this month’s polling, we’ve crossed over to most people having a negative impression of Trudeau. This happens over time to everyone, from Stephen Harper to Barack Obama to provincial governments. Bad news piles up, a leader’s voice gets stale, fatigue sets in.

Recent data from 338Canada, an electoral forecasting site, suggest over 90% chance of a Conservative victory, and >40% chance of an outright majority. Whether this thrills or repulses you, it’s possible we have new federal leadership within the next two years. (Or there’s another possibility – a new Liberal leader who’s NOT Trudeau?)

For our industry, a change in government could have huge implications. Real estate is intimately tied to political decisions: immigration targets, building retrofit programs, energy policy, zoning, transit projects, rent control, minimum wage. Here are five areas that might look different under new leadership:

  • Carbon taxes – very significant for industrial, trucking and logistics
  • Housing – requiring cities to build to access federal infrastructure funding?
  • Pipelines and oil exports – possibly bullish for AB/prairies
  • Rates and the Bank of Canada – less stimulus and lower tolerance for inflation
  • Downtown – different tone on policing, treatment and addiction recovery

Research Weekly Insights Federal Politics Meets CRE

Summary
A potential change in political leadership has implications for lending, development, energy, labour and immigration... all highly significant for the CRE industry.


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Pour plus d’informations, veuillez contacter:

Adam Jacobs

Head of Research | Canada

Toronto Downtown

Colliers Canada's head of research, leading a cross-country team of 20 mapping, analytics and research professionals. Formerly head of Canada research at Cushman Wakefield and Director of Analytics at Oxford Properties. Featured in mainstream publications such as the Toronto Star, industry publications and podcasts. Specializing in the big picture and the fundamentals driving real estate - demographics, the macro environment and the global economy. 

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