Fall 2018 Key Highlights
• Based on data to September 2018, we forecasted full-year retail sales in Canada would increase by 3.44% over 2017, fueled by Ontario (4.23%) and Quebec (4.17%).
• Our model predicts that when all the sales are tallied, Ontario (7.18%) and Alberta (6.03%) will see the strongest holiday season growth, and the country as a whole (5.70%) will be inclined to open their wallets this December.
• Our outlook for retail sales at the national level is clouded by political and economic uncertainty in the US, low energy and commodity prices, and a growing acceptance of online shopping as a convenient (if not always the cheapest) retail portal. With population growth and inflation responsible for the lion’s share of retail sales growth, we expect 2019’s total sales of $620 billion to be only a 2.2% increase over 2018.